A Fox News survey conducted between October 9 and 12, 2026, finds that Democratic candidates hold a five-point lead in the U.S. House race, a gap that has widened since the previous month. The results suggest that economic dissatisfaction is weighing heavily on the Republican Party, with 54% of voters saying they would support the Democratic candidate in their district compared to 45% for the Republican. This margin exceeds the survey's error of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points and represents a larger lead than the 51% to 44% advantage Democrats held last month.
The economic outlook drives much of this shift. Six in ten voters identify the cost of living as their top economic worry, a concern that outpaces government spending, jobs, income inequality, tariffs, and taxes. A majority of respondents, 74%, rate the economy negatively, and 53% expect it to worsen over the next year. Only 18% report that their family is better off than two years ago. Among independents, 52% say they are worse off and 70% believe the economy will deteriorate.
President Donald Trump's approval ratings reflect this economic strain. His overall job approval has fallen to 36%, the lowest recorded in a Fox News survey for either of his terms. The decline is most pronounced among voters under age 45, those with household incomes below $50,000, non-White voters, and those without a college degree. Approval among Republicans has also dropped to 76%, down three points from the previous month. Inflation remains Trump's weakest issue, with only 22% approving of his performance on that front, a figure that has fallen from 36% last summer.
Voters are actively looking to change the balance of power. Seven in ten respondents said they intend to vote to send a message to Trump, with opposition outweighing support by nearly two to one. Democrats lead on 10 of the 13 issue areas tracked in the poll, including healthcare, inflation, gas prices, and government leadership. Republicans maintain advantages on crime and border security, though their lead on border security has narrowed compared to four years ago.
Despite the issue gaps, party loyalty remains high, with 98% of Democrats and 94% of Republicans supporting their respective party's candidate. However, independents favor Democrats by 26 points. Daron Shaw, a Republican pollster who helped conduct the survey with Democrat Chris Anderson, noted that while Republicans have time to close these gaps, it is getting late. The survey also highlights deep dissatisfaction with Congress, which has an approval rating of just 15%. Both major parties face net negative favorability ratings, with the Democratic Party at 42% favorable and the Republican Party at 38% favorable.
Methodology for the survey was handled by Beacon Research and Shaw & Company Research. The study interviewed 1,202 registered voters via landline, cellphone, or online text message. Weights were applied to ensure demographic representation based on recent American Community Survey data and voter files.