The U.S. Department of Defense is accelerating hypersonic weapons development to address missile stockpile concerns, a shift driven by the need for maneuverable systems that travel five times faster than the speed of sound. Mark Cancian, a retired U.S. Marines colonel and senior advisor with the CSIS Defense and Security Department, stated that the military requires all three tiers of missiles, including cheap options, high-end systems like Patriot, and hypersonics. Cameron Tracy, a UC Berkeley Senior Research Scholar, noted that hypersonic systems are now viewed as revolutionary, while ballistic missiles are considered archaic.
Government Accountability Office estimates highlight the financial burden of current programs. Missiles for the Army’s Dark Eagle long-range hypersonic weapon could cost more than $40 million each. For the Navy’s Zumwalt Destroyers, GAO estimates place the cost at $70 million per missile, including development and technology incorporation costs. The GAO also reported that the modernization project is two years behind schedule. In contrast, Tomahawk missiles cost around $2.6 million, Patriot missiles cost nearly $4 million, and Precision Strike Missiles cost $1.6 million per unit. The Navy could purchase almost 27 Tomahawks for the price of one Zumwalt hypersonic missile, while the Army could buy around 25 Precision Strike Missiles for the price of one Dark Eagle.
Xiaodon Liang, a senior policy analyst for Nuclear Weapons Policy and Disarmament at the arms control association, said the Army believes long-range hypersonic weapons will become cheaper as production ramps up. Liang characterized these as exquisite weapons acquired for exquisite purposes. The Atlantic Council estimates that 75% fewer hypersonic weapons would be needed for a mission compared to traditional options. Hypersonic weapons remain mostly in Earth’s atmosphere and can strike a target in 15 to 30 minutes from approximately 1,725 miles away.
Startups are entering the market to reduce production costs through affordable designs and increased testing. Bryon Hargis, co-founder and CEO of Castelion, stated that the company’s Blackbeard hypersonic weapon costs under $500,000. Hargis described this as incredibly cheap for munitions and emphasized that the project is a story of American manufacturing aimed at providing a middle deterrence layer. Castelion began building what it describes as the largest dedicated hypersonic weapon production factory in the U.S., with Project Ranger expected to produce thousands of Blackbeard weapons annually. The Army and Navy are investing in Castelion’s Blackbeard, which the company says is designed for mass production.
Planned integrations include installing Blackbeard on U.S. Navy F/A-18 Super Hornet jets, incorporating it into the U.S. Army’s HIMARS, and deploying it on unmanned surface vessels. Hargis argued that hypersonic systems are highly survivable due to their maneuverability and speed, which aids deterrence. However, Liang warned that maneuverability could lead to misinterpretation of incoming strikes, potentially causing concern if a target is not initially known. Developers said the U.S. speaks with other countries about missile launches and intended targets.
Tracy noted that while technologies improve over time with testing and experience, physical constraints limit system performance. Defense contractor Rocket Lab is working with the War Department to improve capabilities through test launches. Brian Rogers, Vice President of Global Launch Services at Rocket Lab, said the HASTE program enables low-cost, high-frequency testing. Rogers explained that this approach allows for more risk in technology development by planning multiple tests rather than relying on a single rigorous campaign. The HASTE vehicle is derived from Rocket Lab’s Electron rocket, which has launched nearly 100 missions.
The U.S. military has never used a hypersonic weapon but has explored deploying the Dark Eagle to the Middle East. Liang said he would be very surprised if they were used extensively due to the small number of missiles that exist and concerns about the munitions stockpile.