A single $5,000 investment in the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO) could be worth between $14,686 and $24,436 by 2040, depending on the annual growth rate applied. This projection covers a 14-year period and assumes compounded annual returns of 8%, 10%, or 12%, respectively. The calculations rely on a fixed initial capital amount rather than ongoing contributions.
The Vanguard S&P 500 ETF is frequently cited as a straightforward vehicle for stock market exposure, with Warren Buffett recommending S&P 500 index funds for most investors. Buffett has also directed that the majority of his estate be allocated to such funds for his wife. The ETF's historical performance, as reported by Morningstar.com as of October 6, 2026, shows an average annual gain of 23.55% over the past three years, 13.95% over the past five years, and 15.57% over the past ten years. The source lists the same 15.57% figure for a "Part 15 years" period.
These historical figures exceed average returns, which raises the possibility that future performance may be lower. The projection table provided by Investor.gov's calculator illustrates how a lump-sum investment grows at different rates over time. At an 8% annual rate, the $5,000 initial investment grows to $10,795 in ten years and $14,686 in fourteen years. At a 10% annual rate, the value reaches $12,969 in ten years and $18,987 in fourteen years. At a 12% annual rate, the value climbs to $15,529 in ten years and $24,436 in fourteen years.
Longer time horizons yield significantly higher values under these assumptions. Over twenty years, the investment would reach $23,305 at 8%, $33,638 at 10%, or $48,231 at 12%. Over thirty years, the figures rise to $50,313, $87,247, and $149,800, respectively. Over forty years, the projected values are $108,623 at 8%, $226,296 at 10%, and $465,255 at 12%. These calculations assume a compounded growth rate and do not account for fees or taxes.
Investors can potentially increase returns by adding to their positions over time, as early dollars have more time to compound. However, market volatility remains a factor; a crash or correction could occur in the near term. In such events, patience is advised while awaiting a recovery. Market pullbacks may also present opportunities to purchase stocks at lower prices. No one can predict precise investment outcomes, but historical data offers a rough guide for future expectations.