Senate Majority Leader John Thune and Minority Leader Chuck Schumer are managing five Senate races where their party establishments preferred different candidates, creating a difficult path to maintaining control of the chamber. The leaders are navigating contests defined by primary upsets and nominees who struggled to secure the backing of their respective party machines before the general election.
In Texas, Thune’s attempts to prevent Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton from securing the Republican nomination failed. The party is now spending more than $329 million to defeat state Rep. James Talarico, yet the race remains close. In Georgia, GOP leaders could not persuade Gov. Brian Kemp to run for the open seat. The eventual nominee, Rep. Mike Collins, has struggled to match the fundraising of Sen. Jon Ossoff, and GOP financial support is retreating.
Democrats in Maine faced a similar disruption when Graham Platner’s campaign collapsed, leaving backup candidate Troy Jackson to challenge Sen. Susan Collins, despite Schumer’s endorsement of Gov. Janet Mills. In Michigan, Abdul El-Sayed defeated establishment-backed Rep. Haley Stevens to win the Democratic nomination. Although primary polls showed him leading by double digits, he won by only one point and now polls within the margin of error against former Rep. Mike Rogers.
In Minnesota, Peggy Flanagan defeated Rep. Angie Craig after running as a progressive who opposed Schumer’s leadership. The Cook Political Report has moved her race against former NFL sideline reporter Michele Tafoya toward Republicans, even as it shifted other contests toward Democrats.
Former senators from both parties are adding complexity by supporting candidates across the aisle. Former Sen. Joe Manchin, who became an independent in 2024, is campaigning for Sen. Susan Collins, according to Semafor. Former Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, also now an independent, is boosting Republican Jay Feely in her home House district and voted for him in the GOP primary, as reported by Axios. Additionally, former Sen. Jeff Flake endorsed Sen. Jon Ossoff in his reelection bid this summer.
Despite these challenges, Schumer secured strong candidates in two red states. Democratic former Gov. Roy Cooper has nearly secured North Carolina, while former Sen. Sherrod Brown is keeping the Ohio race competitive against Sen. Jon Husted.