Costco Wholesale (NASDAQ: COST), currently trading at $961 per share, has returned 11.5% in 2026 so far, a solid number in isolation but one that trails the S&P 500's 13.7% gain over the same period. The long-term record is difficult to argue against. The near-term setup is a different question.
The case for a long-duration position begins with the 10-year numbers. Costco has delivered a 573% gain over that span against 321% for the S&P 500. Extend to five years and the stock's 115% total return still outpaces the index's 87%. The three-year window narrows the spread, with Costco roughly on par with the broader market in both price and total return. For a portfolio built to hold through cycles, the read-through is fairly clean.
Membership stability reinforces the structural argument. A 92.2% renewal rate across North America reflects a customer base that treats membership as a necessity rather than a discretionary line item, even when household budgets compress. The dividend yield is 0.6%, below what dedicated income allocators typically require, but Costco supplements the quarterly payout with periodic special dividends. The last one came in at $15 per share in 2024.
The counterargument is a portfolio construction one, and it deserves its own airing. An 11.5% return in a 13.7% market is a real relative drag for anyone benchmarked to the index, and the stock has no identifiable company-specific catalyst in the near term beyond its fiscal fourth-quarter earnings. The line to watch is September 26, the scheduled report date. At $961, the stock sits close enough to $1,000 that the print could push it through or pull it back toward $900.
On balance, the time horizon determines almost everything here. The 10-year 573% against the S&P 500's 321% earns its place in a long-duration portfolio on the numbers alone. The risk is that 2026 becomes another short window where Costco cedes ground to the broader market, and the September 26 earnings report is the first clean read on whether that spread contracts.