XRP ($XRP) has dropped 9.4% in today's session, more than three times Ethereum's ($ETH) 2.9% decline, as traders position ahead of a possible 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate hike. The on-chain data behind that gap makes the case for XRP absorbing more of the blow if the hike is confirmed. What complicates that reading is whether Ethereum's comparatively shallow pullback leaves it with more room to fall once the decision lands.
XRP entered today's session already down nearly 25% over the prior three weeks, sliding from $1.70 to $1.28 as hike odds climbed from near 70% to above 90%. The on-chain picture over that stretch is blunt. Whales sold or redistributed roughly 90 million XRP in the past week, and daily active addresses collapsed from approximately 388,000 to 38,000. Year-to-date, XRP is down roughly 30%, compared with Ethereum's 18% decline, even though both tokens have traded through the same rate environment all year.
Ethereum's path looks different. The token has fallen roughly 6% from around $2,550 three weeks ago to near $2,400, and on-chain flow data shows buyers outpacing sellers on the network even as the price slid. That pattern typically reflects broad market caution rather than direct distribution against Ethereum itself. One structural factor may also limit how far XRP falls once the decision is out. Spot XRP ETFs have pulled in $1.71 billion in cumulative inflows since launching in November 2025 and hold roughly $1.41 billion in total assets today, per SoSoValue. Fund managers on those products rebalance on set schedules, so a single rate headline does not trigger the same reflexive selling that has driven the whale-led distribution XRP has seen.
The counterargument centers on Ethereum's market capitalization. Ethereum absorbs a larger share of any broad rotation out of non-yielding assets when Treasury yields near 5% compete directly with crypto for investor capital, and that rotation does not sort tokens by on-chain accumulation quality. XRP has already absorbed a significant portion of that hit. The token touched $0.99 in August, well before today's decision, while Ethereum's decline has been gradual and could still have further to run if investors who left XRP months ago begin reconsidering Ethereum next.
On balance, that alternate case rests on a rotation that remains hypothetical. XRP's underperformance is visible in the price action, the on-chain distribution data, and the year-to-date gap against Ethereum. The line to watch is $1.35 for XRP, where roughly 2.29 billion tokens previously changed hands, and the moving-average convergence between approximately $2,400 and $2,550 for Ethereum.