UnitedHealth Group CFO Wayne DeVeydt stated on the third-quarter earnings call that current analyst consensus for 2027 may understate the company's earnings opportunity, a claim that follows the stock's 17% rise this year. The company reported adjusted earnings of $4.69 per share, beating the $4.14 analyst consensus, and raised its full-year 2026 adjusted earnings outlook to at least $20.50 per share from a previous range of $19.50 to $20.
DeVeydt characterized the quality of earnings as strong and durable as the company heads into 2027. He identified the lower end of UnitedHealth's long-term adjusted earnings growth target of 13% to 16% as a reasonable starting point for future performance. By Stocktwits' calculation, 13% growth on the $20.50 floor would imply about $23.17 a share in 2027, whereas analysts' quarterly estimates compiled by Fiscal.ai sum to about $22.80.
The stock has outpaced the S&P 500 so far in 2026, rising nearly 17% compared to the index's 14% gain and the Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund's 11% rise. This rebound follows a 33% plunge last year, though shares remain up just 19% since January 2021, a 3% annualized gain over nearly six years.
Operational metrics showed mixed signals in the third quarter. Revenue came in at $112.69 billion, slightly below the $113.2 billion reported a year earlier, while earnings from operations climbed to $6.6 billion from $4.3 billion. The medical care ratio fell to 88.4% from 89.9% a year earlier, reflecting tighter pricing and cost controls, though it rose from 86.7% in the second quarter. UnitedHealthcare CEO Tim Noel stated that the company is not seeing worsening dynamics in commercial medical trends, which remained above 11%.
Medicaid remains a pressure point, with UnitedHealth expecting 2026 to be a trough year for core Medicaid margins, projected to be moderately better than negative 1%. The firm expects margins to return to targeted levels by the end of 2028. UnitedHealthcare generated $86.3 billion in third-quarter revenue and $2.8 billion in operating earnings, while Optum businesses generated $66.9 billion in revenue and $3.7 billion in operating earnings.
Analysts remain largely positive on the stock. The average 12-month analyst price target is $480.68, implying about 27% upside from current levels according to Koyfin data. Of 26 analysts, seven rate the stock Strong Buy, 15 rate it Buy and four rate it Hold; none rate it Sell or Strong Sell.