United Airlines is reducing its full-year profit forecast for 2026 as fuel costs surge, a move that signals continued pressure on carrier margins despite steady passenger demand. The carrier now expects fourth-quarter adjusted earnings of between 50 cents and $1.50 per share, a figure well below the $1.76 per share anticipated by Wall Street analysts. If the high end of that range materializes, United's total adjusted earnings for 2026 would cap out at $7.22 per share, a sharp decline from the $9 to $11 per share range projected in mid-July.
The primary driver of the revised outlook is the cost of jet fuel. United projects an average fuel price of $4.80 per gallon in the fourth quarter, up from an average of $3.90 per gallon in the third quarter. This increase contributed to a fuel bill that rose to $4.84 billion in the quarter ended Sept. 30. The broader industry has seen billions of dollars added to costs due to these price spikes, which have consequently pushed airfares higher.
Despite the margin compression, United reported that passenger demand remains resilient. For the three months ended Sept. 30, revenue climbed 17.4% from the prior year to $17.88 billion, up from $15.23 billion in the same period last year. Domestic passenger unit revenue increased by 14.5%, while international unit revenue rose 17.4%, reflecting higher fares. United stated that passenger counts grew by more than 2% compared to last year, indicating that travelers continue to book flights despite the price increases.
On a net income basis, United reported a rise of 8.5% year over year to $1.03 billion, or $3.14 per share, compared with $949 million, or $2.90 per share, in the prior year period. After adjusting for one-time items, the carrier's net income stood at $833 million, or $2.54 per share.
Scott Kirby, United Airlines CEO, credited the company's workforce and strategic focus for navigating the shifting conditions while maintaining a customer-centric approach.