The case for Texas starts with a seven-point defeat in Columbus last season and ends with a home game, a sharper Arch Manning, and an Ohio State defense that has shed key personnel since that meeting. What complicates it is the team arriving to play them. Ohio State is ranked first in the country, and the Buckeyes opened this season by handling Ball State 56-3 in a display that left almost nothing to criticize.
Julian Sayin threw for 320 yards on 21 of 25 attempts with three touchdowns against Ball State, and both of his backups added scores, each going 5-for-6 with more than 50 yards and a touchdown. That kind of depth at quarterback tests any defense. Texas enters ranked fourth in the nation and will need to show it can contain a team with those options at the position.
What's changed since last season
The read-through from the 2025 matchup runs in Texas's favor on one specific front. Ohio State scored just 14 points that day, and Sayin finished with 126 passing yards, the fewest he managed all season. The Texas defense held. Ohio State has also lost significant defensive personnel since that game, meaning Manning may face less resistance than the unit that held him to 170 yards and a shade above 50 percent completion in Columbus. He threw one touchdown, one interception. Texas scored seven.
Manning's trajectory this season provides a different data point. Against Texas State, he completed 20 of 27 passes for 305 yards and four touchdowns, adding one interception. The game opened as a pick'em, and Texas has become the favorite.
The counterargument
The counterargument is Ball State. Ohio State's 56-3 opening win confirms the Buckeyes are operational. It says nothing about how Sayin performs against a real secondary. He was held to 126 passing yards by this same Texas defense a year ago, and a comfortable opener against a mid-major moves lines without telling you much about what comes next. The Buckeyes remain unproven in 2026 against anything close to a top-four opponent.
On balance, Texas's position is defensible: playing at home, with a quarterback trending upward, against a defense that has turned over. The line to watch is the first quarter. If Ohio State holds Manning to another seven-point afternoon, the revenge narrative collapses. If the Longhorns get to double digits early, the 14-point ceiling the Buckeyes hit against this same defense last year is the number that matters most.