Republican gains among Latino voters in 2024 are eroding, but not in a simple swing back toward Democrats. An Axios analysis of recent polling indicates that Latino politics is fragmenting internally, with deepening divides along gender and generational lines rather than a uniform shift in party allegiance. Democrats have regained ground in national polling, yet the data suggests the electorate is splitting over issues like immigration, President Trump, and democratic norms.
A new bipartisan BSP Research/Shaw & Co. poll for the American Business Immigration Coalition and American Families United shows Democrats leading Republicans 56% to 29% on the generic House ballot among 1,353 Latino registered voters in seven battleground states. This margin is 11 points wider than Democrats' Latino lead in 2024. The Democratic advantage holds in Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Texas. Florida remains an exception, where Republicans hold a slight 44% to 43% edge.
Voter dissatisfaction persists on both sides of the aisle. The poll found that 39% of respondents view congressional Democrats unfavorably, compared with 63% who view congressional Republicans unfavorably. Inflation and gas prices remain top concerns, but immigration remains highly salient. Most voters do not see enforcement and legalization as mutually exclusive priorities. Specifically, 63% cited the treatment of immigrants as a top issue, while 59% prioritized creating legal status for undocumented immigrants with U.S.-citizen family members. A majority of 76% preferred a candidate position advocating for a bipartisan path to permanent legal status and immigration reform over a deportation-focused approach.
Sharper divides are emerging within specific demographics. A UCLA Latino Policy & Politics Institute analysis of UC Berkeley polling reveals significant differences between young Latino men and women in California. Among registered voters under 30, 88% of young Latinas called protecting immigrant communities very important, compared with 60% of young Latino men. Similarly, 82% of young Latinas prioritized fighting President Trump's agenda, versus 52% of young Latino men. On defending democracy and protecting voting rights, 92% of young Latinas rated the issue very important, while the figure was 74% for young Latino men.
This shift follows a historic performance for the GOP in the 2024 presidential election, when nearly half of Hispanic voters backed Trump. An Axios review of elections dating to 1960 identified this as the best result for a GOP presidential candidate in modern times. However, that advantage has largely dissipated as voters react to moves on immigration, trade, and the economy. A separate Hart Research-TelevisaUnivision poll this month found Democrats ahead 58% to 35% among 1,500 Latino registered voters in 17 competitive House districts.
Rebecca Shi, executive director of the American Business Immigration Coalition, noted that voters do not view border security and legal pathways as competing priorities. Ashley DeAzevedo, executive director of American Families United, added that voters can simultaneously want national security and humane treatment.
The National Latino Evangelical Coalition recently released "With Love: A Christian Guide to Faithful Voting," a nonpartisan guide urging voters to assess candidates based on love of neighbor, trustworthy character, and responsible use of power. Rev. Gabriel Salguero, the group's president, emphasized that civic responsibility extends beyond Election Day.