Fox News contributor Hugh Hewitt argues that the widespread polling failures in the Michigan Senate primary have left the national race in the dark, forcing Democrats to confront a potential reckoning. He contends that the discrepancy between predicted margins and actual results indicates a fundamental disconnect between party leadership and voter sentiment. In the primary between Abdul El-Sayed and Haley Stevens, polls consistently showed El-Sayed leading by double-digit margins. The final result saw El-Sayed winning by only 1%, a figure that contradicted predictions of a 10% to 18% advantage. Hewitt suggests these inaccurate polls may have suppressed turnout, encouraging some Stevens supporters to stay home. He notes that this dynamic is unlikely to repeat in the general election, as news followers are expected to vote.
Hewitt characterizes El-Sayed as a radical candidate whose past statements and campaign rhetoric he has failed to own. The columnist points to El-Sayed's refusal to discuss his prominent supporter, Hasan Piker, a streamer and YouTube personality whom Hewitt describes as part crazy and part extremist. Piker played a significant role in El-Sayed's primary victory, yet El-Sayed deflects when questioned about the relationship. Hewitt cites El-Sayed's antipathy toward Israel, noting that he has equated the country with Iran. The contributor highlights that Iran has been at war with the United States since its 1979 revolution, citing the 1983 attacks on the U.S. Embassy and Marine Corps barracks in Beirut by Hezbollah, an Iranian proxy. He also references a recent Houthi missile attack on Riyadh's international airport that killed an American.
Hewitt contrasts El-Sayed with his Republican opponent, former Rep. Mike Rogers. He describes Rogers as a mainstream moderate Michigander with a background as a former FBI agent, Army lieutenant, state legislator, and long-serving U.S. Representative. Rogers served as chairman of the House Intelligence Committee, a position Hewitt notes is reserved for members with national security expertise. The columnist argues that the race should not be close due to El-Sayed's reported difficulty connecting with Detroit's Black community, a demographic on which Democrats traditionally rely in Michigan. Despite campaign visits by former Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Barack Obama, Hewitt states these efforts have not reversed the trend. He notes a long-standing estrangement between Black and Arab American communities in Detroit, which pollsters have struggled to account for in their models.
The piece positions the upcoming general election as a test for the Democratic Party's move toward the fringe. Hewitt lists other candidates he views as fringe nominees, including James Talarico in Texas, Peggy Flanagan in Minnesota, and Troy Jackson in Maine. He suggests the Democratic National Committee made little effort in candidate recruitment or selected candidates likely to lose. Hewitt predicts an early victory call for Rogers on November 3 would secure the Senate majority for Republicans, a result potentially already assured by victories for Sens. Susan Collins in Maine and John Sununu in New Hampshire. He concludes that a Rogers victory would represent a win for moderation and a rejection of extremism within the Democratic Party.