Eli Lilly has moved its strategic emphasis from manufacturing capacity to new product launches and acquisitions, a shift that redefines the key metrics for investors evaluating the stock. The company trades at 38.7 times earnings, a premium to the S&P 500's 21.5 multiple, and management's recent communications indicate that the drivers of this valuation are evolving.
During the fiscal second-quarter 2026 earnings call on August 5, 2026, management highlighted the ongoing U.S. launch of Foundayo, a new weight-loss pill, and positive results from three late-stage retatrutide trials in obesity. The company also announced agreements to acquire several firms. Lilly plans to submit retatrutide for U.S. approval in the first quarter of 2027. This stands in contrast to the company's priorities in late 2024, when manufacturing expansion was the top focus.
On the fiscal third-quarter 2024 call in October, management set a target to produce at least 1.5 times as many incretin doses in the second half of 2024 as in the second half of 2023. By the fiscal fourth-quarter 2024 call, the company had met that target. However, as late as the fiscal second-quarter 2025 call, management remained cautious about supply constraints, noting it was carefully pacing rollouts in markets like Mexico, Brazil, China, and India to ensure demand did not exceed supply. In the most recent update, management stated that supply would not hold back any launch, citing strong positioning for Foundayo.
Financial results reflect this transition. Zepbound and Mounjaro generated $14.9 billion in fiscal second-quarter 2026, an increase of $6.3 billion from the year-earlier period. These two drugs accounted for nearly two-thirds of Lilly's $23.0 billion in total quarterly revenue. While Foundayo is at an earlier stage, prescriber reach grew from 8,000 to 36,000 between calls. Management noted that while the launch was initially described as slower than anticipated, volume almost doubled in a recent month.
Growth rates have accelerated since the supply-constrained period. Revenue over the past twelve months rose 50% year-over-year, compared with a 32% growth rate two years ago. However, a new headwind has emerged in pricing. Across all U.S. sales, price fell 3% in fiscal second-quarter 2026, driven by Zepbound and Mounjaro. Management explained that Zepbound's price will decline as coverage widens, though volume growth is expected to offset this.
Lilly's forecast for fiscal 2026 revenue is $85 billion to $87 billion, representing growth of about 30% to 33%. This is slower than the 44.7% growth recorded in fiscal 2025. The company expects favorable rebate adjustments seen in the second quarter not to repeat in future periods. Consequently, underlying price cuts, which ran closer to 9%, are expected to weigh more heavily on sales. The upcoming fiscal third-quarter 2026 earnings call in late October will provide further data on whether prescription volume continues to outpace net realized price declines.