Coinbase chief executive Brian Armstrong maintains that Bitcoin reaching $400,000 by 2030 is a reasonable target, even as the asset trades around $77,000. In an interview with CNBC Squawk Box Asia on Thursday, Armstrong argued that the current market cycle is nearing its bottom, citing historical patterns of four-year cycles that typically involve a year-long down period following periods of euphoria. He stated that Bitcoin has recently crossed the one-year mark of this downturn after rising from approximately $60,000.
Armstrong linked his optimism to upcoming Bitcoin halvings, which he said historically precede price runups. With the next halving expected in about 18 months, he predicted the next year or two would be favorable for Bitcoin. Achieving a $400,000 price point would represent a fivefold increase in just over three years. This bullish outlook contrasts with recent corporate challenges, including a 14% staff reduction at Coinbase and a miss in second-quarter earnings driven by slowing trading activity.
The CEO expressed greater confidence in the regulatory landscape in Washington. He noted that the Senate is scheduled to vote on the Clarity Act on September 15 and described the bill as ready to pass, claiming support from law enforcement groups, banks, and crypto companies. Armstrong said previous objections raised by Coinbase have been resolved, leaving ethics rules covering the president's family crypto ventures as the primary remaining issue. While the White House has proposed a provision he called unprecedented for a sitting president and Democrats seek divestiture, Armstrong described current talks as close to a solution.
Market sentiment on Myriad, a prediction market owned by Decrypt's parent company Dastan, diverges from Armstrong's assessment. Users on the platform assign only a 17% probability to the Clarity Act being signed into law in 2026. However, Armstrong downplayed the impact of a potential failure, noting that the SEC and CFTC have indicated readiness to publish rulemaking and innovation exemptions under existing authority. He expects regulatory clarity within a month regardless of the bill's outcome.
Armstrong pointed to last year's Genius Act as a precedent for market response to new legislation, noting that more than 150 large companies integrated stablecoins within three months of its passage. He said passing the Clarity Act would also enable tokenized equities and perpetual futures for U.S. customers. Coinbase is already preparing for these developments, having outlined plans in June for tokenized stock trading with automatic dividends and becoming the first U.S. exchange approved to offer crypto perpetual futures in May. Company executives describe these moves as part of an ambition to become an "everything exchange," distinct from rivals offering derivative or IOU products.