Investors in Casey's General Stores (CASY) received higher annualized returns than those in the S&P 500 over the past five years, but only after accepting significantly greater price swings. The core question for holders is whether the extra compensation justifies the turbulence, especially as the company faces ongoing operational changes.
From 2021 to October 19, 2026, Casey's delivered an annualized return of 30.3% including dividends, compared with a 12.7% return for the S&P 500. However, this outperformance came with an annual volatility of 29.4%, nearly double the index's 17.0%. When adjusting for risk, Casey's return per unit of volatility stood at 1.03, exceeding the S&P 500's 0.747. This indicates that shareholders earned more for each point of price fluctuation than index holders did.
Recent price action shows Casey's moving independently of broader market trends. Over the year ending October 19, 2026, the stock recorded a beta of -0.11 and a correlation of -0.04 with the S&P 500. On average days when the S&P 500 fell by 0.592%, a $10,000 investment in Casey's still gained approximately $12.20. Conversely, on the index's average up day of 0.638%, that same investment rose by about $10.30. Despite this decoupling, Casey's annual volatility over the last year reached 37.7%, well above the index's 12.7%.
Management attributes these wide swings to daily variations in fuel profits and the integration of the Fikes acquisition. In fiscal Q1 2027, fuel margins were described as volatile, ranging from the 30s to the 60s of cents per gallon on different days. The company reported an average fuel margin of $0.478 per gallon for that quarter, with the August figure in the low $0.40s. Casey's is currently remodeling Cefco stores acquired through the Fikes deal, a project management expects to complete by the end of the fiscal year.
While fuel margins fluctuate, in-store sales have remained steady. Inside same-store sales rose 3.2% in fiscal Q1 2027, driven largely by prepared food categories. The next key data point will arrive with the earnings report expected on or around December 7, 2026, which will detail fuel margins for fiscal Q2 2027.
For investors holding other fuel retailers, Casey's distinct movement pattern means the stock does not compound existing market risk in a traditional sense, but it adds a specific exposure to fuel price swings. The December report will provide clarity on whether fuel margins stabilize or continue their erratic path.