Broadcast television companies are positioned to capture the largest share of political advertising dollars ahead of the 2025 midterm elections, despite a broader industry shift toward digital platforms. AdImpact forecasts that $5.6 billion, or 48%, of the total $11.6 billion in predicted political ad spending for the cycle will go to broadcasters. This figure exceeds the $11.2 billion spent during the 2024 presidential election and the $8.9 billion spent in the 2022 midterms, marking the most expensive election cycle on record.
The dominance of broadcast in political advertising stands in contrast to its role in general commercial spending. According to Magna data published by S&P Global in July, broadcasters account for just 7.7% of the more than $470 billion in general U.S. advertising spend forecast for this year. StoneX Equity Research Analyst Daniel Kurnos attributes this disparity to the local nature of elections, noting that winning counties requires reaching voters where they are, and that broadcast audiences tend to be more politically active.
Industry executives emphasize trust and reach as key drivers of this spending pattern. Brad Seitter, CEO of the trade organization TVB, stated that viewers trust local broadcast news more than social media content, which he said is often viewed with skepticism. Seitter argued that nothing moves polling numbers like running an ad on broadcast TV, a sentiment echoed by E.W. Scripps CEO Adam Symson, who described broadcast as the most powerful and reliable medium for political messaging.
Publicly traded broadcasters have already begun to see financial benefits from this spending. Nexstar Media Group reported its highest quarterly revenue in company history, with net revenue hitting $1.99 billion and advertising revenue at $862 million in its August earnings report. While the acquisition of Tegna contributed to overall growth, Nexstar also reported $75 million in political advertising revenue at its legacy operations. Gray Media is highlighted by Kurnos as a particularly efficient political generator due to its exposure in 12 competitive Senate races and all 11 competitive gubernatorial races. Sinclair and E.W. Scripps also reported strong political ad performance, with Scripps citing its highest second-quarter political ad revenue ever and Sinclair noting a 9% growth compared to the 2022 midterm season.
Connected TV is emerging as the fastest-growing category in political advertising, with AdImpact predicting it will capture 23%, or $2.7 billion, of this cycle's spend. However, adoption has been slow among some consultants due to the complexity of the platform landscape. Erik Brydges of Magnite noted that many consultants still rely on traditional TV out of habit, citing an old adage that no political consultant gets fired for suggesting more TV. Pia Carusone of SKDK emphasized that while streaming offers superior audience targeting, effective political strategy now requires buying across both linear and digital platforms.