Bitcoin ($BTC) came within roughly $700 of the resistance level that has capped it since February, then reversed below $80,000 within hours. The case for a sustained breakout briefly looked credible. Then the August jobs report landed.
What Waller opened, payrolls closed
Fed Governor Christopher Waller supplied Thursday's catalyst. His remarks that recent inflation data shows "some signs of disinflation" opened the door to leaving rates unchanged at this month's Federal Reserve meeting. September rate-hike odds dropped to roughly 52% from 63%, per fed funds futures. The dollar posted its biggest single-day drop since August 19. Bitcoin surged more than 5% Thursday and extended into Friday morning, touching above $82,000.
The broader risk trade followed. Strategy (MSTR) gained 18%, its best session in nearly seven months. Robinhood (HOOD) jumped 16% for its biggest single-day gain in over a year. Coinbase (COIN) added nearly 10%, its best day in six months. Palantir (PLTR) rallied roughly 8%, and the ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) added 4.5%.
Friday's payrolls data unwound much of that in hours. Employers added 162,000 jobs in August, nearly triple expectations. June and July payrolls were revised higher by a combined 55,000. The unemployment rate held at 4.1%. Short-term yields and the dollar rose. Bitcoin fell more than 2%, Coinbase dropped over 3%, Palantir shed nearly 4%, and Tesla (TSLA) tumbled more than 6%, erasing its Thursday gain entirely.
The counterargument
The counterargument is that Friday's print doesn't settle the inflation side of the Fed's mandate. Cooler wage growth left that question open, and Waller was explicit: a hot August inflation report could still put a hike back on the table. The jobs data strengthens the labor half of the rate calculation without resolving the broader path. If CPI comes in soft, the read-through reverses and Thursday's trade gets a second runway.
On balance, $83,000 is the line to watch for $BTC. Bitcoin came within roughly $700 of that ceiling before reversing Friday. A sustained move above it is what would finally clear the range in place since February. Hardika Singh, who works with Fundstrat's Tom Lee, offered an additional signal to track on the next attempt: when the ethereum-to-bitcoin ratio moves higher, Singh told Yahoo Finance's Market Domination on August 26, watch bitcoin.