Two elections Tuesday offer a split-screen on whether outsider money moves votes. The case for Toby Doeden, a self-made millionaire bitcoin investor, rests on a first-place finish in South Dakota's June gubernatorial primary and a strong base in Minnehaha County, home to Sioux Falls. What complicates it: incumbent Gov. Larry Rhoden holds a heavy polling advantage, and South Dakota has not elected a Democratic governor since the 1970s, meaning the state's electorate has no modern habit of rewarding outside challengers.
The South Dakota runoff: establishment holds the cards
Rhoden stepped into the governor's office after President Donald Trump chose former Gov. Kristi Noem to lead the Department of Homeland Security in his second term. He fell short of outright primary victory in June, triggering the state's first gubernatorial runoff. That shortfall matters: Rhoden has never won a statewide election on his own.
Doeden's path is narrow and runs through Sioux Falls. Minnehaha County, which delivered him a primary plurality, is the key county to watch Tuesday. Pennington County, on the western side of the state, also contributed to his first-place June finish. The question my desk always asks: who is selling to whom? Doeden is selling an outsider identity built on bitcoin profits. Whether that pitch travels to a smaller, harder runoff electorate is the variable Rhoden's team is counting on.
The counterargument
The counterargument sits in the historical record. South Dakota has not elected a Democratic governor since Richard Kneip in the 1970s. Kneip served nearly two full terms before President Jimmy Carter nominated him as ambassador to Singapore, and Gov. Harvey Wollman completed the remaining six months. The state's political gravity is reliably Republican, and Rhoden carries the institutional weight of an incumbent. If the polls are roughly right, Doeden needs a Sioux Falls performance that outpaces June, not one that merely matches it.
Georgia's 13th: a seat with a predetermined November outcome
The other race Tuesday fills the vacancy left by Rep. David Scott, who died in April at age 80. Scott, related by marriage to baseball Hall of Famer Hank Aaron, held the Georgia-13th for 12 terms. The district covers the southern and eastern Atlanta suburbs of Stockbridge, Conyers, and Snellville, and whoever wins Tuesday serves only until January.
Three candidates are competing. Scott's daughter is running on continuity, telling the Georgia Recorder she wants to ensure projects reach completion and the district is cared for. Everton Blair, whose campaign page describes itself as "a voice for a new generation," told Fox News Digital that a confrontational town hall encounter with Scott in Gwinnett County prompted his bid. Carlos Moore, a former Mississippi judge suspended from the bench for one year in 2024 after a bar tribunal found he mishandled a wrongful death settlement, is also in the race. When pressed about that ruling, Moore pointed to Trump's 34-count indictment in New York.
The November contest is structurally settled. Georgia state Rep. Jasmine Clark, D-Tucker, won the Democratic nomination for the full term and faces Republican Air Force veteran Jonathan Chavez. Trump lost the district by roughly 43 points in 2024.
On balance
On balance, South Dakota is the race with consequences beyond January. Doeden's first-place primary finish was real, and Rhoden's failure to clear a majority in June left an opening. The line to watch Tuesday night is Minnehaha County. If Doeden's Sioux Falls margin beats his June showing, the race stays live. If it falls short, Rhoden consolidates a win he was always favored to hold, and a bitcoin investor's first run at a statehouse ends where most well-funded outsider campaigns do.