Bitcoin (BTC) weathered a Federal Reserve rate hike and a failed Senate vote without a sharp price drop, yet on-chain metrics indicate a structural break. The asset closed below a critical support level for the second time in three weeks, a pattern analysts say signals a shift from a temporary slip to a deeper correction.
Glassnode identified the True Market Mean at $76,700 as the week's decisive test. A second daily close below this level would confirm a break. Bitcoin finished Wednesday at $76,187, marking the second consecutive close under that threshold. The level represents the average price paid by active investors and has floored the asset's range since late August.
The market absorbed two significant shocks in 48 hours. First, the CLARITY Act failed to advance in the Senate on September 15. The bill would have clarified US regulatory oversight of digital assets. Traders had viewed the legislation as a positive catalyst. Bitcoin funds shed $450.33 million that day, while spot Bitcoin and Ethereum products saw combined outflows of $592 million, the deepest single-day ETF outflows in months.
The Federal Reserve followed with a unanimous decision to raise the target range to 3.75%-4.00%. Projections indicated that 16 of 18 officials expect another hike this year. Despite the hawkish signal, Bitcoin rose from about $75,350 to above $76,100 within minutes of the announcement. At press time, BTC traded near $76,297, up 0.58% over 24 hours but down 2.5% for the week.
The resilience in spot price masks underlying capital flow issues. Realized Cap, which values coins at their last transaction price, rose for 27 straight days through September 14 before turning negative on September 15. ETF demand had already faded earlier in the week, with spot Bitcoin funds losing roughly $334 million between September 8 and 14. Stablecoin supply, which often funds new buying, remained flat near $301 billion.
Corporate buyers have also stepped back. Listed companies purchased about 5,900 BTC over three months, compared to 89,000 BTC in July 2025 alone. With their average entry near $80,500 now above the spot price, these entities are underwater and unlikely to provide immediate support.
Options markets reflected the shift in sentiment. One-week skew flipped from pricing upside to pricing downside within hours of the Senate result.
Not all analysts agree on the severity of the move. On-chain analyst Willy Woo stated he puts the probability that the bottom is in at 90%, citing an early bull market structure based on returning long-term investor liquidity. However, current ETF flows and stablecoin data move in the opposite direction.
Seasonality factors offer some context, with analysts often labeling September a "nothing month" for Bitcoin and expecting a bottom in October. Until then, technical levels define the range. The ceiling sits between $83,000 and $86,000, where long-term holder supply is heaviest. Support rests at roughly $68,000, with the book thinning below that level down to about $61,000.
Glassnode noted that price sits just under the bottom of its late-August range. The next cost basis down is the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis at $71,300. Two daily closes back above $76,700 would restore the range, but only if accompanied by new capital. Without it, $71,300 and the $62,000-$65,000 floor determine the depth of any further decline.