21Shares is calling for a $100,000 bitcoin by the end of 2026, framing the asset's prolonged slide as a recognizable post-halving pattern rather than evidence of lasting structural damage. The asset manager's base case lands at that round number even as $BTC trades roughly 50% below its October 2025 peak of $126,000.
The Post-Halving Playbook, According to 21Shares
The firm's argument rests on pattern recognition. 21Shares says bitcoin's price action since the most recent halving — the roughly four-year supply reduction event that cuts the block reward miners receive — "still looks familiar," implying it rhymes with prior cycles rather than breaking from them. That framing is deliberately reassuring: halvings historically compress new supply while demand holds steady or grows, and prior cycles have tended to produce their biggest gains in the months following the event, not immediately after it.
The $100,000 target functions as the firm's base case, not a bull scenario. Read that as a hedge: 21Shares is not promising a recovery to the old high, only suggesting a partial retracement is the most likely outcome by December.
What the 50% Drawdown Actually Means
A drop of roughly half from peak is not unusual in bitcoin's history, which is precisely why 21Shares can frame it as familiar. But familiarity cuts both ways. Anyone who bought near $126,000 last October is sitting on deep losses, and the mechanism that produces recoveries — new demand absorbing a constrained supply — requires actual buyers, not just a favorable chart shape.
The more pointed question is who is positioned to buy between here and $100,000. Halvings reduce miner issuance, but they do not eliminate selling pressure from early holders, liquidations, or institutions rebalancing away from a volatile asset. 21Shares does not appear to address that side of the ledger in the summary available.
The Skeptic's Read
The "still looks familiar" line is doing a lot of work. Pattern-based forecasting in crypto has a mixed record; each cycle has attracted a different buyer profile, different regulatory backdrop, and different macro conditions. A $100,000 year-end target is plausible — it represents a meaningful recovery from current levels without requiring a new all-time high — but it is a forecast grounded in historical analogy rather than on-chain fundamentals or macro catalysts the firm has identified. Investors following this call should ask what changes if the pattern breaks.