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The acute risk of a stagflation shock has been held back, but the margin is thin.
Credit insurer Atradius published its latest Economic Outlook on July 14 from Amsterdam, crediting a ceasefire between the United States and Iran with easing energy price pressure after months of supply disruption.
The firm's word for the situation is "contained," not resolved. What changed in the energy picture The US-Iran ceasefire is doing the heavy lifting here.
Atradius's assessment is that months of disruption to energy supply had kept stagflation risk elevated, and the truce is what brought pressure down.
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