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Treasury yields are bearing down on 4.8%, and the question Miller Tabak is raising is what happens if they get through it and stay there. The firm's answer: meaningful problems for other asset classes.
The complication is that fiscal risks are doing the pushing, and those don't carry a clear expiry date. The case for concern is a read-through question.
If fiscal deterioration is the mechanism lifting yields above 4.8% on a sustained basis, the pressure doesn't stay in the bond market.
Where and how fast is what Miller Tabak is pointing at when it flags that level as consequential for other markets. The counterargument is familiarity.
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