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Treasury yields moved higher Thursday, and the move comes with a built-in qualifier. The data that would actually justify a direction, U.S. wholesale inflation figures, had not yet been released.
What traders are doing is positioning. Whether the position survives the print is the mechanism worth watching. The case for reading Thursday's yield rise as rational advance work is familiar.
Bond markets often move toward where they expect a number to land before it actually does, and if wholesale inflation prints hot, the direction gets validated.
The risk is the opposite: a soft print means the pre-data bid in yields was borrowed conviction, and those unwinds can be abrupt. What the wholesale number carries Wholesale inflation sits upstream of consumer prices.
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