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Neel Kashkari, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, now projects one interest-rate hike this year — a meaningful shift from the more patient posture many Fed watchers had assumed — pointing to unresolved doubts about the U.S.-Iran peace deal and the surging buildout of artificial intelligence infrastructure as the forces that changed his calculus.
The revision puts Kashkari, historically one of the more closely watched regional Fed presidents on rate-path questions, on a more hawkish footing than markets may have priced.
Why Kashkari Changed His View Two developments pushed Kashkari toward a hike projection. First, lingering uncertainty around the U.S.-Iran peace deal.
A deal that holds would, in theory, ease energy supply constraints and reduce geopolitical risk premiums — but Kashkari's doubts suggest he is not willing to bank on that outcome in his inflation forecast.
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