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Heading into Wednesday's Consumer Price Index release, the prediction market platform Kalshi is pricing in softer July inflation.
Monday's odds on Kalshi assign little probability to a print that comes in above economists' consensus for the month. The market's collective weight sits with the benign scenario.
What Kalshi's odds are saying Prediction markets aggregate individual trader views into probabilities, which gives Monday's Kalshi positioning a different quality than a point forecast from a single research desk.
The case for a soft print is built into those odds.
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