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India's consumer price inflation reached 4.38% in June, exceeding forecasts for the period and stretching an unbroken run of monthly price acceleration to eight months.
Two forces are driving the move: the Iran war, which has lifted energy costs, and deficient rainfall, which is pressing food prices higher. Together, they raise the prospect that the streak continues.
Eight months and counting A single month above forecast is noise. Eight consecutive months of acceleration shifts the conversation.
The consistent upward pressure indicates that the forces at work in India's economy are not resolving themselves, and June's print above expectations suggests the pace of the move is also surprising to the upside.
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