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Fed set to raise rates for first time in three years, midterms weeks away

9/16/2026

Traders now expect the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates for the first time in three years, with chair Kevin Warsh under pressure to act on stubbornly high inflation.

What complicates the case is the calendar: the expected move lands weeks before US midterm elections, a moment that risks drawing Donald Trump's ire.

The case for Warsh acting now is that a central bank seen to hesitate for political reasons loses credibility faster than it loses any single policy battle. The rate hike is already priced.

The risk is that the read-through from a hike this close to midterms is not purely economic.

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