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Emerging market debt has surged recently, and the bull case is already written.
What complicates it is the other explanation: that the inflows are speculative capital rotating for yield, not a genuine reassessment of the asset class.
The case for a structural shift is that something has changed in how investors approach developing-economy borrowers. If that is the real mechanism, the surge has legs. But speculative flows are a convincing mimicry.
They look, from the outside, exactly like conviction until the conditions that attracted them reverse. Both stories produce identical price action.
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