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The case for a durable turnaround in China's industrial sector has been building all year, and the data had been cooperating.
Industrial profit growth slipped to 11.2% last month, a seven-month low, raising the first real question about whether this year's double-digit momentum has started to soften. The underlying shift is genuine.
Chinese industrial corporate profitability spent years in decline after 2021. Last year, growth barely registered as positive.
This year brought double-digit gains: a swing material enough in unit-economics terms that the direction of travel seemed settled. July's 11.2% is the first print that tests that assumption.
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