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Bitcoin Supply Metric Flashes First Buy Signal Since November 2022 — But Price Could Still Fall Further

7/4/2026

A Bitcoin supply metric has printed its first buy signal since November 2022, pointing toward a potential end to the current bear market.

Analysis accompanying the reading carried an explicit caveat, however: $BTC could still move lower before any recovery takes hold.

What the Metric Is Actually Saying The signal is rooted in supply dynamics — the on-chain behavior of coins, not the price chart.

Supply-side indicators track how Bitcoin is moving, accumulating, or sitting dormant across the network, and they tend to shift before sentiment does.

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