NewsNovo

Bitcoin faces 30% downside risk as 30-year Treasury yield reaches 25-year high

8/17/2026

US 30-year Treasury yields cleared at 5.216% in an Aug. 13 auction, the highest rate for that maturity since 2001, while Bitcoin's daily chart is forming a bear pennant with a measured breakdown target near $45,235.

The short-term pressure is real. The complication is that the same deficit math pushing yields to a quarter-century high is the exact argument $BTC bulls reach for when they make the long case.

The mechanism is straightforward. When the US Treasury sells $25 billion in 30-year bonds at better than 5% annually, the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset like $BTC rises.

Tighter conditions follow: liquidity contracts, appetite for risk assets thins. BlackRock strategist Vivek Paul has described the current climate as a "competition for capital." The data backs that framing.

Keep reading

Read the full story

Open on NewsNovo