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US 30-year Treasury yields cleared at 5.216% in an Aug. 13 auction, the highest rate for that maturity since 2001, while Bitcoin's daily chart is forming a bear pennant with a measured breakdown target near $45,235.
The short-term pressure is real. The complication is that the same deficit math pushing yields to a quarter-century high is the exact argument $BTC bulls reach for when they make the long case.
The mechanism is straightforward. When the US Treasury sells $25 billion in 30-year bonds at better than 5% annually, the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset like $BTC rises.
Tighter conditions follow: liquidity contracts, appetite for risk assets thins. BlackRock strategist Vivek Paul has described the current climate as a "competition for capital." The data backs that framing.
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